A Closing Window of Opportunity as Interest Rates Expected to Ease

South Africa's Real Estate Market: A Closing Window of Opportunity as Interest Rates Expected to Ease

South Africa's property market is on the cusp of significant change, presenting a fleeting opportunity for astute buyers.

The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is due to announce a repo rate decision on the 19^th of September 2024.

Over the past three years, a series of interest rate hikes has reshaped the market, and with the SARB expected to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points in the coming weeks, the window to secure a great deal is likely closing. This follows after Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank at a recent central bankers conference said "The time has come for policy to adjust," on the 23^rd of August, all but confirming the up coming interest rate cut.

Post-COVID Boom and the Shift to a Balanced Market

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 saw a surge in property market activity as pent-up demand, and low interest rates fueled a relative boom. However, this momentum began to slow as the SARB initiated a series of rate hikes to curb rising inflation:

• November 2021: Repo rate increased to 3.75%, signaling the end of the ultra-low-interest rate environment.
• January 2022: Rate edged up to 4.00%, still supporting a vibrant market.
• March 2022: Reached 4.25%, with the market beginning to adjust.
• May 2022: Climbed to 4.75%, marking the start of a transition to a more balanced market.
• July 2022: Increased to 5.50% and September 2022 to 6.25%, maintaining a stable market where buyer demand and affordability were still relatively aligned.

From Balanced Market to Affordability Squeeze

The real estate market maintained relative balance as the repo rate climbed steadily from 4.75% in May 2022 to 6.25% by September 2022. During this period, property prices remained stable, with buyer demand and affordability generally aligned.

However, the situation changed dramatically as the repo rate hit 7.00% in November 2022, marking the onset of an affordability squeeze:

• November 2022: Repo rate at 7.00% initiated a noticeable decline in buyer activity.
• January 2023: Increased to 7.25%, further constraining affordability.
• March 2023: Climbed to 7.75%, leading to a significant slowdown in property transactions.
• May 2023: Peaked at 8.25%, creating a buyer's market with heightened negotiation opportunities.

This affordability crunch has pushed many potential buyers out of the market, leading to softened property prices and more motivated sellers, particularly in distressed sales and long-market properties.

The Closing Window: The Anticipated September Repo Rate Cut

With the MPC decision expected to cut the repo rate to 8.00% on the 19th of September, buyers may be running out of time to capitalise on the current market conditions. The anticipated rate cut is likely to rekindle buyer interest, increasing competition and potentially driving up property prices.

For those looking to buy, the best opportunities lie in regions that have experienced significant price corrections, particularly in metropolitan areas and the luxury market.

Conclusion: Act Before the Market Shifts

The South African real estate market is poised for change, and the window to secure a great deal is potentially closing. With signals that the interest rate cut is likely just weeks away, now is the time to act before increased competition drives prices higher.

Ready to make your move? Visit our website https://www.threepercent.com/ to explore current listings and get expert advice on securing the best deals in today's market. Our team is here to guide you every step of the way- contact us today and don't miss out.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.